I like to bet on sports, mainly hockey and NFL football, which I also enjoy watching. Before I make a bet (my normal bet being somewhere between $2-$5), I do some basic research on the money I’m about to wager. I look at the piles of information available (for non sports fans, you would be amazed at the tomes of information compiled in support of a 60-minute game) and make my pick, laying money down and hoping that the hypothesis I had about the game was correct.
This past Sunday, I felt that the Indianapolis Colts would win at a margin higher than the posted “line” of 3.5 points. I played for higher odds and bet they would win by 7 points. If you were to look at the score of the game they played in, you would see that I was completely wrong with my bet (not only didn’t they win by 7, they lost by 17). A loss betting is not good, as you lose 100% of the wagered amount, which is the reason why I keep my bets small enough to make watching the game interesting to me, while minimizing the impact of the losses on my available betting money.
For me, Investing works the same – prior to investing – whether it’s in a house, individual stocks or bonds, or Exchange Traded Funds, I research thoroughly (there is actually less information on a lot of investments than there is on sports games). I filter through all of the information and make my investment decision based on what I’ve read. As I invest, similar to when I bet on a football game, I have a story of why I’m making the particular investment I’m making, as well as an expected outcome of the money I have laid down.
To me, the main difference between sports betting and investing is the amount of faith I put into the information available. While there have been cases of falsified information, management and the auditors hired by corporations have much more to lose when they make reports on companies than some guy who makes a living selling pageviews on a sports website. Another difference is the “soft” decline offered by stock investment, compared to a binary win or lose outcome of a football game. Any company I’m investing in at least has assets that can be sold off which I have a chance at receiving some money for if the company fails.
Both sports betting and investing depend on third parties acting out the hypothesis you have in place for them – whether it’s a projected 7 point win for the Indianapolis Colts, or by maintaining the current market share and profitability in the long-term for a company I’m investing in. I’m sure other people may see it differently, but I see both of these activities as somewhat risky, just in different ways. It’s for this reason I’m much more willing to sink thousands of dollars in the stock market and a very tiny fraction of this amount into sports betting.
When you “pull the trigger” on an investment, how do you convince yourself you’ve made the right decision out of the thousands of things you could invest in?